Seems the UFC pumps out a new hot online sports betting event every week, doesn't it? Hey, I'm not complaining. The fighters get better with every card and we're seeing spectacular knockouts - the kind that make you and your buddies yell "ohhhh!" --- more often than not.
UFC 96 betting features a few veteran fighters looking for redemption and some up-and-comers trying to make names for themselves. As always, there's a least one sneaky sportsbook pick that could turn MMA betting fans into big winners come Saturday, March 7.
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (29-7) vs. Keith "The Dean of Mean" Jardine (14-5-1)
Does Keith Jardine have any real fans out there who aren't related to him? For a "striker," who uses many kick-oriented attacks, he sure doesn't finish fights very often; just six of his 14 wins came via knockout. And what's with the disgusting soul patch dangling from his chin? Most MMA betting fans want to see Jardine's opponents beat the facial hair off his face, and the Jackson vs Jardine line is no exception.
Based on Jardine's recent fight history, his detractors may get their wish and see him flattened in the octagon. After all, within his last four fights (2-2), Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander both tore him to shreds in less than a minute. It's important to note, though, that Silva and Alexander were both brutal matchups for Jardine because they're extremely aggressive fighters who walk forward throughout their fights.
Jardine, not an elite fighter but certainly no slouch, excels against counterpunchers. Within his last four fights, his wins were big ones Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin, both of whom were counterpunchers. Jardine seized the opportunity and became the aggressor in those fights. Why is this information important? Because Rampage Jackson is a counterpuncher.
That's right - Rampage is appropriately favored at -300 but Jardine is a poor matchup for him on paper. If Rampage remains his usual patient self, Jardine may capitalize and score points with a flurry of strikes. Still, even though Jardine offers fair value at +240, picking him would be a misstep for MMA betting fans.
Even though Jardine scored big victories over Griffin and Liddell, neither opponent was in his prime at the time; Griffin was green and hadnt yet developed his ground game while Liddell was over the hill. The powerful Rampage is still at or near the top of his game and won't wilt so easily. Since Jardine can't knockout the strong-chinned Jackson, let alone anyone, and since he can't top Rampage's great wrestling on the ground, his only chance is to beat Rampage on points. In theory, that could happen since Rampage is a counterpuncher and could hang back. But those who bet UFC should remember that Rampage adds brains to his brawn. He prepares well for fights, so don't be surprised if he switches up his style and decides to walk forward against Jardine.
Pick Rampage to beat Keith Jardine, probably via knockout, and join Lyoto Machida as a co-number-one contender in the light heavyweight division.
Other UFC betting lines of interest...
Gabriel Gonzaga has the "name value" advantage against Shane Carwin but I don't think he deserves the recognition. Aside from his lucky kick against Mirko Cro Cop, he's done nothing. Why not go with the undefeated Carwin at +160? This could be the last time he offers that kind of value.
Good ole Matt Hamill seems to bounce endlessly between about fifth and 10th on the light heavyweight ladder. He loses against real competition but beats up the nobodies easily. At 5-0, Mark Munoz could surprise, but he's a nobody for now...so pick Hamill.
He looks tough and "the Bully" is a tough nickname but, boy oh boy, Gray Maynard hasn't shown he can finish a fight, with just one true knockout (unless you count the one over Rob Emerson in which Maynard knocked himself out at the same time). He's still a good wrestler, not to mention undefeated, so fight fans should stick with Maynard against Jim Miller.
Remember when MMA betting circles used to hype Kendall Grove? I ain't buyin' it anymore and Team Penn members seem to be on a cold streak, so why not take Jason Day as a potential upset at the sportsbook?
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